Pregnancies in the United States by Desire for Pregnancy: Estimates for 2009, 2011, 2013, and 2015.

We examine whether changes in U.S. pregnancy, birth, and abortion rates between 2009 and 2015 reflect underlying change in the incidence of pregnancies classified by retrospectively reported pregnancy desires: pregnancies reported as having occurred at about the right time, later than wanted, too soon, or not wanted at all, and those for which individuals expressed other feelings, including uncertainty, ambivalence, or indifference. We calculate the proportionate distributions of these pregnancies and rates among U.S. women aged 15-44, as well as change over time, overall and among age groups. Characterization of desires for a past pregnancy shifted in a number of ways between 2009 and 2015, and changes across age groups were not uniform. Rates of pregnancies reported as occurring later than wanted increased among older women, while rates of pregnancies reported as occurring too soon decreased among all women. These findings shed light on previous research documenting an increasing age at first birth, increasing rates of pregnancy and childbearing among the oldest age groups, and changes in patterns of contraceptive use, particularly among young women. Our analysis explores limitations and challenges of two major sources of data on pregnancies in the United States and their measures of retrospectively reported pregnancy desires.

The Impact of Abortion Underreporting on Pregnancy Data and Related Research.

INTRODUCTION: The impact on research findings that use pregnancy data from surveys with underreported abortions is not well-established. We estimate the percent of all pregnancies missing from women's self-reported pregnancy histories because of abortion underreporting. METHODS: We obtained abortion and fetal loss data from the 2006-2015 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), annual counts of births from US vital statistics, and external abortion counts from the Guttmacher Institute. We estimated the completeness of abortion reporting in the NSFG as compared to the external counts, the proportion of pregnancies resolving in abortion, and the proportion of pregnancies missing in the NSFG due to missing abortions. Each measure was examined overall and by age, race/ethnicity, union status, and survey period. RESULTS: Fewer than half of abortions (40%, 95% CI 36-44) that occurred in the five calendar years preceding respondents' interviews were reported in the NSFG. In 2006-2015, 18% of pregnancies resolved in abortion, with significant variation across demographic groups. Nearly 11% of pregnancies (95% CI 10-11) were missing from the 2006-2015 NSFG due to abortion underreporting. The extent of missing pregnancies varied across demographic groups and was highest among Black women and unmarried women (18% each); differences reflect both the patterns of abortion underreporting and the share of pregnancies ending in abortion. DISCUSSION: Incomplete reporting of pregnancy remains a fundamental shortcoming to the study of US fertility-related experiences. Efforts to improve abortion reporting are needed to strengthen the quality of pregnancy data to support maternal, child, and reproductive health research.

Abortion Reporting in the United States: An Assessment of Three National Fertility Surveys.

Despite its frequency, abortion remains a highly sensitive, stigmatized, and difficult-to-measure behavior. We present estimates of abortion underreporting for three of the most commonly used national fertility surveys in the United States: the National Survey of Family Growth, the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, and the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. Numbers of abortions reported in each survey were compared with external abortion counts obtained from a census of all U.S. abortion providers, with adjustments for comparable respondent ages and periods of each data source. We examined the influence of survey design factors, including survey mode, sampling frame, and length of recall, on abortion underreporting. We used Monte Carlo simulations to estimate potential measurement biases in relationships between abortion and other variables. Underreporting of abortion in the United States compromises the ability to study abortion-and, consequently, almost any pregnancy-related experience-using national fertility surveys.

Effect of Changes in Response Options on Reported Pregnancy Intentions: A Natural Experiment in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: The Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS), conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in collaboration with state health departments, is the largest state-level surveillance system that includes a question on the intention status of pregnancies leading to live birth. In 2012, the question was changed to include an additional response option describing uncertainty before the pregnancy about the desire for pregnancy. This analysis investigated how this additional response option affected women's responses. METHODS: We used the change in the pregnancy intention question in 2012 as a natural experiment, taking advantage of relatively stable distributions of pregnancy intentions during short periods of time in states. Using PRAMS data from 2009-2014 (N = 222 781), we used a regression discontinuity-in-time design to test for differences in the proportion of women choosing each response option in the periods before and after the question change. RESULTS: During 2012-2014, 13%-15% of women chose the new response option, "I wasn't sure what I wanted." The addition of the new response option substantially affected distributions of pregnancy intentions, drawing responses away from all answer choices except "I wanted to be pregnant then." Effects were not uniform across age, parity, or race/ethnicity or across states. CONCLUSIONS: These effects could influence estimated levels and trends of the proportion of births that are characterized as intended, mistimed, or unwanted, as well as estimates of differences between demographic groups. These findings will help to inform new strategies for measuring pregnancy and childbearing desires among women.

Contraceptive Failure in the United States: Estimates from the 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth.

CONTEXT: Contraceptive failure rates measure a woman's probability of becoming pregnant while using a contraceptive. Information about these rates enables couples to make informed contraceptive choices. Failure rates were last estimated for 2002, and social and economic changes that have occurred since then necessitate a reestimation. METHODS: To estimate failure rates for the most commonly used reversible methods in the United States, data from the 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth were used; some 15,728 contraceptive use intervals, contributed by 6,683 women, were analyzed. Data from the Guttmacher Institute's 2008 Abortion Patient Survey were used to adjust for abortion underreporting. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to estimate the associated single-decrement probability of failure by duration of use. Failure rates were compared with those from 1995 and 2002. RESULTS: Long-acting reversible contraceptives (the IUD and the implant) had the lowest failure rates of all methods (1%), while condoms and withdrawal carried the highest probabilities of failure (13% and 20%, respectively). However, the failure rate for the condom had declined significantly since 1995 (from 18%), as had the failure rate for all hormonal methods combined (from 8% to 6%). The failure rate for all reversible methods combined declined from 12% in 2002 to 10% in 2006-2010. CONCLUSIONS: These broad-based declines in failure rates reverse a long-term pattern of minimal change. Future research should explore what lies behind these trends, as well as possibilities for further improvements.

The Role of Men's Childbearing Intentions in Father Involvement.

An expanding body of research has investigated factors that influence fathers' involvement with their children. Generally overlooked has been the role of pregnancy intentions on men's fathering behaviors. In this study, the authors used nationally representative data from men interviewed in the 2002 and 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth to examine relationships between fathers' pregnancy intentions and multiple aspects of their parental involvement. Using propensity score methods to control for confounding, they found that men were less likely to live with a young child from a mistimed than intended pregnancy and that among nonresident fathers, mistimed pregnancies were associated with lower levels of visitation and consequently reduced participation in caregiving and play. Among both resident and nonresident fathers, mistimed pregnancies were also associated with lower self-appraisals of fathering quality when compared with intended pregnancies; for nonresident fathers, however, this association was moderated by other involvement.

Parents' experience of unintended childbearing: A qualitative study of factors that mitigate or exacerbate effects.

Births resulting from an unintended pregnancy affect individuals differentially, and some may experience more negative consequences than others. In this study, we sought to describe the mechanisms through which the severity of effects may be mitigated or exacerbated. We conducted in-depth interviews with 35 women and 30 men, all with a youngest child born resulting from an unintended pregnancy, in two urban sites in the United States. Respondents described both negative and positive effects of the child's birth in the areas of school; work and finances; partner relationships; personal health and outlook on life trajectories. Mechanisms through which unintended pregnancies mitigated or exacerbated certain effects fell at the individual (e.g. lifestyle modification), interpersonal (e.g. partner support) and structural (e.g. workplace flexibility) levels. These qualitative findings deepen understanding of the impact of unintended childbearing on the lives of women, men and families.

Are Pregnancy Intentions Associated with Transitions Into and Out of Marriage?

CONTEXT: In addition to having associations with health outcomes, pregnancy intentions may be associated with social outcomes, including marital transitions. METHODS: Linked data from the 2004-2008 Oklahoma Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System and The Oklahoma Toddler Survey for 2006-2010 on 3,617 women who were married and 2,123 who were unmarried at conception were used to examine the relationship between pregnancy intention status (intended, mistimed by less than two years, mistimed by two or more years, or unwanted) and marital formation or dissolution by the time of the birth and two years later. Logistic regression analyses were conducted, and propensity score methods were used to adjust for confounding characteristics. RESULTS: Intention status was associated with marital transition two years after the birth, but not between conception and birth. In adjusted models, among women married at conception, those with a birth resulting from an unwanted pregnancy were more likely than those with a birth resulting from an intended pregnancy to transition out of marriage by the time their child was two years old (odds ratio, 2.2). Among women unmarried at conception, those with a birth following an unwanted pregnancy were less likely than those with a birth following an intended pregnancy to marry by the time their child was two (0.5). Births following mistimed pregnancies were not associated with marital transition. CONCLUSIONS: The findings should motivate researchers to broaden the scope of research on the consequences of unintended childbearing. Future research should distinguish between mistimed and unwanted births.

Cost-effectiveness of two interventions for the prevention of postpartum hemorrhage in Senegal.

OBJECTIVE: To compare, at the community level, the cost-effectiveness of oxytocin and misoprostol for the prevention of postpartum hemorrhage (PPH). METHODS: The present cost-effectiveness study used data collected during a randomized trial that compared the prophylactic effectiveness of misoprostol and oxytocin for the prevention of PPH in a rural setting in Senegal between June 6 and September 21 2013. The two interventions were compared, with referral to a higher level facility owing to PPH being the outcome measure. The costs and effects were calculated for two hypothetical cohorts of patients delivering during a 1-year period, with each cohort receiving one intervention. A comparison with a third hypothetical cohort receiving the current standard of care was included. A sensitivity analysis was performed to estimate the impact of variations in model assumptions. RESULTS: The cost per PPH referral averted was US$ 38.96 for misoprostol and US$ 119.15 for oxytocin. In all the scenarios modeled the misoprostol intervention dominated, except in the worst-case scenario, where the oxytocin intervention demonstrated slightly better cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSION: The use of misoprostol for PPH prophylaxis could be cost effective and improve maternal outcomes in low-income settings.

Pregnancy intentions, maternal behaviors, and infant health: investigating relationships with new measures and propensity score analysis.

The premise that unintended childbearing has significant negative effects on the behavior of mothers and on the health of infants strongly influences public health policy and much of current research on reproductive behaviors. Yet, the evidence base presents mixed findings. Using data from the U.S. National Survey of Family Growth, we employ a measure of pregnancy intentions that incorporates the extent of mistiming, as well as the desire scale developed by Santelli et al. (Studies in Family Planning, 40, 87-100, 2009). Second, we examine variation in the characteristics of mothers within intention status groups. Third, we account for the association of mothers' background characteristics with their pregnancy intentions and with the outcomes by employing propensity score weighting. We find that weighting eliminated statistical significance of many observed associations of intention status with maternal behaviors and birth outcomes, but not all. Mistimed and unwanted births were still less likely to be recognized early in pregnancy than intended ones. Fewer unwanted births received early prenatal care or were breast-fed, and unwanted births were also more likely than intended births to be of low birth weight. Relative to births at the highest level of the desire scale, all other births were significantly less likely to be recognized early in pregnancy and to receive early prenatal care.

Pregnancy intentions and maternal and child health: an analysis of longitudinal data in Oklahoma.

Better understanding of the impact of unintended childbearing on infant and early childhood health is needed for public health practice and policy. Data from the 2004-2008 Oklahoma Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System survey and The Oklahoma Toddler Survey 2006-2010 were used to examine associations between a four category measure of pregnancy intentions (intended, mistimed <2 years, mistimed ≥2 years, unwanted) and maternal behaviors and child health outcomes up to age two. Propensity score methods were used to control for confounding. Births mistimed by two or more years (OR .58) and unwanted births (OR .33) had significantly lower odds than intended births of having a mother who recognized the pregnancy within the first 8 weeks; they were also about half as likely as intended births to receive early prenatal care, and had significantly higher likelihoods of exposure to cigarette smoke during pregnancy. Breastfeeding was significantly less likely among unwanted births (OR .68); breastfeeding for at least 6 months was significantly less likely among seriously mistimed births (OR .70). We find little association between intention status and early childhood measures. Measured associations of intention status on health behaviors and outcomes were most evident in the prenatal period, limited in the immediate prenatal period, and mostly insignificant by age two. In addition, most of the negative associations between intention status and health outcomes were concentrated among women with births mistimed by two or more years or unwanted births. Surveys should incorporate questions on the extent of mistiming when measuring pregnancy intentions.

Exploring U.S. men's birth intentions.

While recently there have been renewed interest in women's childbearing intentions, the authors sought to bring needed research attention to understanding men's childbearing intentions. Nationally representative data from the 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) was used to examine pregnancy intentions and happiness for all births reported by men in the 5 years preceding the interview. We used bivariate statistical tests of associations between intention status, happiness about the pregnancy, and fathers' demographic characteristics, including joint race/ethnicity and union status subgroups. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to calculate adjusted odds ratios of a birth being intended, estimated separately by father's union status at birth. Using comparable data and measures from the male and female NSFG surveys, we tested for gender differences intentions and happiness, and examined the sensitivity of our results to potential underreporting of births by men. Nearly four out of ten of births to men were reported as unintended, with significant variation by men's demographic traits. Non-marital childbearing was more likely to be intended among Hispanic and black men. Sixty-two percent of births received a 10 on the happiness scale. Happiness about the pregnancy varied significantly by intention status. Men were significantly happier than women about the pregnancies, with no significant difference in intention status. Potential underreporting of births by men had little impact on these patterns. This study brings needed focus to men's childbearing intentions and improves our understanding of the context of their role as fathers. Men need to be included in strategies to prevent unintended pregnancy.

Variation in state unintended pregnancy rates in the United States.

CONTEXT: Newly available data show large differences in rates of unintended pregnancy across states. Because key policy and program decisions that could affect these rates are made by state governments, it is important to assess whether characteristics of the states are associated with this variation. METHODS: Regression analysis was used to assess the relationship between the variation in state unintended pregnancy rates in 2006 and state-level aggregate measures of demographic composition, socioeconomic conditions, contraceptive use, and funding of and access to family planning services. RESULTS: State unintended pregnancy rates were positively associated with the proportion of resident women who were black or Hispanic. However, these associations were almost entirely accounted for by differences in the age and marital status of women, the proportion without health insurance and the proportion receiving Medicaid. In addition, these last two measures were strongly associated with state unintended pregnancy rates after the other measures were controlled for: An increase in the proportion of women uninsured was associated with elevated unintended pregnancy rates, and an increase in the proportion receiving Medicaid coverage was associated with reduced rates. CONCLUSIONS: State programs and policies should pay particular attention to increasing support for family planning services for minority groups. Findings also suggest that insurance coverage and receipt of Medicaid among women of reproductive age deserve further exploration as potentially important mechanisms for reducing state unintended pregnancy rates.

Unintended pregnancy rates at the state level.

CONTEXT: Unintended pregnancy is a key reproductive health indicator, but rates have never been calculated for all 50 states. METHODS: State-level estimates of unintended pregnancy rates in 2006 were calculated using data from several sources. The proportion of births resulting from unintended pregnancies was obtained from the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System and similar state surveys, and the intention status of pregnancies ending in abortion from a national survey of abortion patients. These proportions were applied to birth and abortion counts for each state, and fetal losses were estimated. Rates of unintended pregnancy were obtained by dividing relevant figures by the number of women aged 15-44 in each state. Six states and the District of Columbia had no appropriate survey data; their rates were predicted using multivariate linear regression. RESULTS: In 2006, the median state unintended pregnancy rate was 51 per 1,000 women aged 15-44. Most rates fell within a range of 40-65 unintended pregnancies per 1,000 women. The highest rate was in Mississippi (69); the lowest rate was in New Hampshire (36). Rates were generally highest in the South and Southwest, and in states with large urban populations. In 29 states and the District of Columbia, more than half of pregnancies were unintended; in nine, a consistent upward trend in unintended pregnancy rates between 2002 and 2006 was apparent; no state had a consistent decline. CONCLUSIONS: These rates provide benchmarks for measuring the impact on unintended pregnancy of state policies and practices, such as those governing sex education and the funding of contraceptive services.

The public costs of births resulting from unintended pregnancies: national and state-level estimates.

CONTEXT: Births resulting from unintended pregnancies are associated with substantial maternity and infant care costs to the federal and state governments; these costs have never been estimated at the national and state levels. METHODS: The proportions of births paid for by public insurance programs in 2006 were estimated, by pregnancy intention status, using data from the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System and similar state surveys, or were predicted by multivariate linear regression. Public costs were calculated using state-level estimates of the number of births, by intention status, and of the cost of a publicly funded birth. RESULTS: In 2006, 64% of births resulting from unintended pregnancies were publicly funded, compared with 48% of all births and 35% of births resulting from intended pregnancies. The proportion of births resulting from unintended pregnancies that were publicly funded varied by state, from 42% to 81%. Of the 2.0 million publicly funded births, 51% resulted from unintended pregnancies, accounting for $11.1 billion in costs-half of the total public expenditures on births. In seven states, the costs for births from unintended pregnancies exceeded a half billion dollars. CONCLUSIONS: Public insurance programs are central in assisting American families in affording pregnancy and childbirth; however, they pay for a disproportionately high number of births resulting from unintended pregnancy. The resulting budgetary impact warrants increased public efforts to reduce unintended pregnancy.

Characteristics of women in the United States who use long-acting reversible contraceptive methods.

OBJECTIVE: To examine characteristics of U.S. women that are associated with use of long-acting reversible contraception and changes in these characteristics between 2002 and 2006-2008. METHODS: We analyzed data from two nationally representative samples of women aged 15-44 in the National Survey of Family Growth, including 7,643 women in 2002 and 7,356 women in 2006-2008. We conducted simple and multinomial logistic regression analyses to identify demographic and reproductive health characteristics associated with use of long-acting reversible contraception. RESULTS: Long-acting reversible contraception (intrauterine devices and subdermal implants) use among U.S. women using contraception increased from 2.4% in 2002 to 5.6% in 2006-2008. The largest increases in long-acting reversible contraception use during this time occurred among the youngest and oldest age groups, non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic African American women, foreign-born women, and those in the highest income group. High prevalence of long-acting reversible contraception use in 2006-2008 was seen among women who had given birth once or twice (10%), foreign-born women (8.8%), and Hispanic women (8.4%). After adjusting for key demographic and reproductive health characteristics, in comparison with users of other contraceptive methods and with those not using contraception who were at risk for unintended pregnancy, foreign-born women and women who experienced coitarche before age 18 were approximately twice as likely to be using long-acting reversible contraception as women without those characteristics. CONCLUSION: A more diverse population of women used long-acting reversible contraception in 2006-2008 compared with 2002. However, there is likely more potential for increased uptake, especially among populations historically not considered to be candidates for these methods.

Trends in abortion in the United States.

The US abortion rate peaked soon after 1973, remained fairly constant through the 1980s, and began a steady decline to 2005. A substantial drop in the abortion rates of teenagers and women ages 20 to 24 accounts for much of the decline from 1989 to 2004. All race and ethnic groups experienced declines in abortion rates over the past 30 years, but the rate of black, and to a lesser extent Hispanic, women remains higher than that of non-Hispanic whites. The number of abortion providers has declined in recent decades, but the introduction of early medical abortion may have slowed this trend.

Discontinuation and resumption of contraceptive use: results from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth.

BACKGROUND: Discontinuation of contraceptive use that is not immediately followed by resumption of use of another method while a woman is at risk is a common cause of unintended pregnancy. STUDY DESIGN: We provide new estimates of discontinuation for the pill, injectable, male condom, withdrawal and fertility-awareness-based methods, and identify socioeconomic characteristics associated with discontinuation for the pill, male condom and withdrawal. We provide new estimates of resumption of use by prior method used and identify socioeconomic characteristics associated with resumption of use. Estimates are obtained using the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth, supplemented by the 2001 Abortion Patient Survey to correct for underreporting of abortion. RESULTS: The fraction of method use segments discontinued for method-related reasons within 1 year was highest for the male condom (57%), withdrawal (54%) and fertility-awareness-based methods (53%), and lowest for the pill (33%), with the injectable in-between (44%). However, contraception was abandoned altogether in only 25% of cases. The probability of resuming use of a contraceptive was 72% in the initial month of exposure to the risk of an unintended pregnancy; this rose to 76% by the third month. CONCLUSION: The risk of discontinuation of use of reversible methods of contraception for method-related reasons, including a change of method, is very high, but fortunately the risk of abandoning use of contraception altogether is far lower, and most spells of exposure to risk of an unintended pregnancy following discontinuation are protected from the start by a switch to another method.

Comparability of contraceptive prevalence etimates for women from the 2002 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System.

OBJECTIVE: This article assesses the comparability of contraceptive use estimates for adult women obtained from the 2002 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), using the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) as a benchmark. The 2002 BRFSS uses data collection methods that are considerably different from the NSFG. METHOD: We compared demographic differences and national estimates of current contraceptive methods being used and reasons for nonuse. Variables were recoded in the BRFSS and NSFG systems to make the two samples comparable. RESULTS: Women in the NSFG and BRFSS were similar in age and race/ethnicity. Compared with the NSFG, the BRFSS sample was more educated and of higher income, less likely to be cohabiting, and more likely to be married. After adjusting for differences in the coding of hysterectomy, many BRFSS estimates for current contraceptive use were statistically similar to those from the NSFG. Small but statistically significant differences were found for vasectomy (7.7% and 6.3%), the pill (21.9% and 19.6%), rhythm (1.5% and 1.0%), the diaphragm (0.5% and 0.2%), and withdrawal (0.3% and 2.7%) for the BRFSS and NSFG, respectively. Major reasons for nonuse were similar: seeking pregnancy and currently pregnant. The percentage of women who were not currently sexually active was higher in the BRFSS (16.0%) compared with the NSFG (12.5%). CONCLUSIONS: The BRFSS is a useful source of population-based data on contraceptive use for reproductive health program planning; however, planners should be cognizant that lower-income women are not fully represented in telephone surveys.